FBA Sales Estimator

30 Keepa drops in 30 days isn't 30 sales.

307k monthlySold observations371 categories

We measured 371 categories across Amazon US and Canada, rolling up real monthlySold badge observations into a single Excel file. The per-category drop-to-sales multipliers most OA sellers eyeball? Quietly wrong, sometimes by 5 to 10x.

Source what actually sells, or rule out a SKU before you wire the factory deposit. Typical, range, and worst case for products like yours, plus an explicit warning the moment the sample is too thin to trust.

One-time purchaseNo subscriptionNo account
371category lookup sheets
254kunique products sampled
2native datasets, US and CA
0subscriptions, accounts, dashboards
§ 02 / What changes

Four things stop being guesswork the moment you open the file.

  1. 01

    Drop the rules of thumb that misfire by 5 to 10x.

    Per-category multipliers from 371 measured categories, not the '30 drops = 30 sales' lore.

  2. 02

    Decide in five minutes per SKU.

    BSR + drops band to typical, middle 50%, best-seen. No spreadsheet juggling, no rank regressions.

  3. 03

    Know when the data is too thin to trust.

    Every cell shows its sample size and flags itself Strong, Limited, or Thin. Tells you when not to decide.

  4. 04

    See what your BSR band actually clears before you commit to 2,000 units.

    Typical, range, and worst case for products like yours, in five minutes. Before the factory wire goes out, not after the inventory sits at FBA.

§ 03 / What you actually get· try it ↓

An Excel file. You open it, pick a category, read the distribution.

No login. No dashboard. No model predictions, just rolled-up observations. A static, dated snapshot of what products at your BSR + drops band actually sell, with the sample size that produced each cell.

fba-sales-estimator-US, May 2026.xlsx
Live preview, pick a slot
OverviewSales / DropHome & KitchenElectronicsGrocery+18 more
SheetHome & Kitchenroot category← Index
Click any cell in the matrix to inspect that slot. The LOOKUP panel updates with the typical, the range, the sample size, and any flags.
Lookup
BSR band
30-day drops
Typical / mo
200
Tier
Slow mover
Read
50 to 525 / mo
Sample
good, n=46
2.0x root, 4 parents removed
Typical sales / mo per slot
9 BSR x 4 drops
BSR ↓ / Drops →
Low
Mid-L
Mid-H
High
1-100
101-500
501-2K
2K-5K
5K-10K
10K-20K
20K-50K
50K-100K
100K-300K
Barely, <= 50Slow, 51 to 100Working, 101 to 300Strong, 301 to 600Blockbuster, 600+
Sales-per-review for Home & Kitchen: ~4 sales/review (26.0% review rate). Used as a cross-check on each slot.
Live preview, 1 of 21 root-category sheets, the workbook ships subcategory sheets too.snapshot, 2026-05, USD market
§ 04 / Proof

We checked 371 Amazon categories. The rules of thumb are wrong in most of them.

  • "1 Keepa drop = 1 sale"
    wrong in every category we measured a multiplier for.
  • "1 review = 20 sales"
    wrong in 58% of US categories (154 of 267).
  • Cumulative review counts pool across variation families.
    The workbook uses new-reviews-in-30-days, calibrated per category, instead.
Fig. 02, rule of thumb vs. data, sampled categories
CategoryRule of thumbData showsOff bySample
Grocery & Gourmet Food30/mo555/mo18.5xgood, n=885
Toys & Games30/mo273/mo9.1xgood, n=852
Patio, Lawn & Garden30/mo213/mo7.1xgood, n=809
Tools & Home Improvement30/mo186/mo6.2xgood, n=656
Industrial & Scientific30/mo177/mo5.9xgood, n=648
Musical Instruments30/mo102/mo3.4xgood, n=294

"Off by" = data / rule-of-thumb. Across the 441 categories with a computed multiplier, the workbook surfaces both directions: categories that overshoot the rule and categories that undershoot it, with a sample-size flag on every cell.

§ 05 / Methodology

How the cells get filled.

The workbook is built from a population. We didn't fit a curve to a few thousand observations and then extrapolate, we sampled the whole shelf and rolled it up by subcategory, BSR band, and 30-day Keepa drop band. Where the shelf is thin, the cell says so.

  1. 01

    Population data, not estimates.

    Every cell is rolled up from real monthlySold badge values, not regressed from rank changes. We sampled hundreds of thousands of products across 371 categories and stored what each one was actually selling.

  2. 02

    Per-cell confidence.

    Every lookup shows sample size: Strong (≥20 unique products), Limited (5 to 19), Thin (<5), plus a two-tier floor flag where the data hits the badge minimum. Honesty about what we don't know.

  3. 03

    Subcategory granularity is the moat.

    'Wellness & Relaxation' doesn't get extrapolated from 'Health & Household.' A 'Diverges' column quantifies how often subcategories break from parents, sometimes by 3×.

§ 06 / From the field

What bad estimates cost the people who didn't have this.

Pulled from r/AmazonFBA and r/FulfillmentByAmazon threads.

Whenever I try to research a new product I spend an hour looking at numbers and still can't confidently answer 'is this worth it or not?'
r/AmazonFBAOA, paralysis
Factory MOQ was 5,000 units. The SKU does 300 a month. I'm sitting on 16 months of supplements that expire before I can sell them.
r/AmazonFBAPL, shelf-life regret
Lessons I learned: ALWAYS test things before going all in. DONT be greedy and don't buy too much.
r/AmazonFBAPL, $10k+ in failed launches
These rank-based estimates are WAY OFF, I mean WAY OFF, when it comes to sales by rank.
r/FulfillmentByAmazonPL, burned

We built this so you don't end up here. Get the workbook →

§ 07 / Pricing

One-time purchase. Lifetime use of the snapshot.

No account to create, no subscription to forget about, no dashboard to log into.

371 category lookup sheets307k monthlySold observationsSample size on every cell
“I keep my subscription, but sometimes I don't use it for months at a time.”
r/AmazonFBA, on a monthly estimator subscription used only occasionally
Both markets

US + CA Bundle

The complete North American picture.

  • Both workbooks, US (231 category sheets) and CA (140 category sheets)
  • Same product, two markets, two velocities, side by side
  • Sample-size flag on every cell, hard-floor flag where the data sits at the badge minimum
  • Free refresh when the next snapshot ships
See all 371 categories →
$79USD, one-time
Buy the bundle, $79
14-day refund. Email and the money comes back, no questions.
one-time · lifetime · no subscription · no account
§ 08 / FAQ

Things peers ask before buying.

Answers in plain prose, no marketing-speak. If your question isn't here, email and we'll add it.

  • It's a May 2026 snapshot. Category-level relationships shift slowly. When we ship a refresh, past buyers get the new file free.

  • No. Every cell is a population rollup of real monthlySold badge values, not a regression on rank. Each lookup carries its sample size.

  • Probably you don't, unless you want category-landscape data (the popular tools are single-ASIN), Canadian data, or a static reference you can cite or hand to a client.

  • No. You do not need a seller account, brand registry, an Amazon login, or an account on this site. Buy, download, open in Excel, look up your category. The workbook is a static file, it does not phone home.

  • It is a single `.xlsx` file with formulas. Built for Excel (Mac, Windows, and Microsoft 365 web), where everything works as designed. Google Sheets opens it and all functionality works; you will see a couple of minor formatting differences. Apple Numbers does not work; use Excel or Google Sheets.

  • Yes, inside your own business. Your employees, contractors, VAs, and co-founders on the same Amazon seller account or legal entity are covered by the license. What is not allowed: redistributing the file outside your business (resale, public hosting, sharing to non-employees, or training a model on the tables). Full license terms on the legal page.

  • The workbook tells you so explicitly. We don't make decisions on data we don't trust, and you shouldn't either.

  • Use the closest parent category that ships as a dedicated sheet. The 'Diverges' column on the Overview sheet tallies how often each subcategory drifts from its root baseline (a cell diverges if it sits ≥2× above or ≤0.5× below); the higher that count for sibling subcategories, the rougher the root is as a proxy for yours. See the full categories list before you buy: 231 US categories and 140 CA categories ship as dedicated sheets.

  • The popular subscription estimators are $30 to $40 a month. $79 is two months of one of those, one-time, lifetime use of the snapshot, no account required.

  • POE requires brand registry, which means a registered trademark plus multi-week approval, and it's keyword and niche-trend oriented, not a category-wide BSR-to-sales map. If you're researching whether to start a brand, you can't use POE yet.

  • Five minutes if you already use BSR and Keepa drops. Open the category sheet, pick your BSR band and your drops band from the dropdowns, read the typical / range / best-seen. The Methodology page walks one full lookup if you want the long form.

  • 14 days, no questions. Email and the money comes back. If you find a methodology bug in that window we want to hear about it.