Most sellers count one rank drop as one sale. We measured 441 categories, US and Canada, and it's never that simple: a drop is worth 3 to 165 sales depending on what you sell. Get yours free. A filter, not a forecast.
A rank drop is worth 3 to 165 sales, not one. Here's where real categories land. ↓
Fig. 01 / proof
Sales per drop, by category
| Category | Sales per rank drop (typical) | Versus the 1.0x rule |
|---|---|---|
| Grocery & Gourmet Food | 23.7x | 23.7x the rule |
| Appliances | 16.2x | 16.2x the rule |
| Toys & Games | 11.8x | 11.8x the rule |
| Patio, Lawn & Garden | 9.4x | 9.4x the rule |
| Tools & Home Improvement | 8.3x | 8.3x the rule |
| Musical Instruments | 4.6x | 4.6x the rule |
The same 30 rank drops is about 711 sales a month in Grocery, 165 in Electronics, and 138 in Musical Instruments. The drop-to-sales multiplier is category-specific, and the one you are eyeballing is usually wrong.
Per-category multipliers from 441 measured categories, not the '30 drops = 30 sales' lore.
Type BSR, drops, and reviews off Keepa. The Demand Read returns a sized range with the worst case beside it. No spreadsheet juggling, no rank regressions.
Every cell shows its sample size and flags itself Strong, Limited, or Thin. Tells you when not to decide.
Typical, range, and worst case for products like yours, in five minutes. Before the factory wire goes out, not after the inventory sits at FBA.
| Category | Rule of thumb | Data shows | Off by | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grocery & Gourmet Food | 30/mo | 711/mo | 23.7x | good, n=885 |
| Toys & Games | 30/mo | 354/mo | 11.8x | good, n=852 |
| Patio, Lawn & Garden | 30/mo | 282/mo | 9.4x | good, n=809 |
| Tools & Home Improvement | 30/mo | 249/mo | 8.3x | good, n=656 |
| Industrial & Scientific | 30/mo | 216/mo | 7.2x | good, n=648 |
| Musical Instruments | 30/mo | 138/mo | 4.6x | good, n=294 |
"Off by" = data / rule-of-thumb. Across the 441 categories with a computed multiplier, every one lands above the one-to-one rule, from about 3x to 165x, with a sample-size flag on every cell.
Two numbers, one dataset: we measure the drop multiplier across 441 categories; the 371 with enough depth for a full lookup table ship as the workbook's category sheets.
The workbook is built from a population. We didn't fit a curve to a few thousand observations and then extrapolate, we sampled the whole shelf and rolled it up by subcategory, BSR band, and 30-day Keepa drop band. Where the shelf is thin, the cell says so.
Every cell is rolled up from real monthlySold badge values, not regressed from rank changes. We sampled hundreds of thousands of products across the US and Canada catalogs and stored what each one was actually selling.
Every lookup shows sample size: Strong (≥20 unique products), Limited (5 to 19), Thin (<5), plus a two-tier floor flag where the data hits the badge minimum. Honesty about what we don't know.
'Wellness & Relaxation' doesn't get extrapolated from 'Health & Household.' A 'Diverges' column quantifies how often subcategories break from parents, sometimes by 3×.
Pulled from r/AmazonFBA and r/FulfillmentByAmazon threads.
“Whenever I try to research a new product I spend an hour looking at numbers and still can't confidently answer 'is this worth it or not?'”
“Factory MOQ was 5,000 units. The SKU does 300 a month. I'm sitting on 16 months of supplements that expire before I can sell them.”
“Lessons I learned: ALWAYS test things before going all in. DONT be greedy and don't buy too much.”
“These rank-based estimates are WAY OFF, I mean WAY OFF, when it comes to sales by rank.”
We built this so you don't end up here. Get the workbook →
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The complete North American picture.
Answers in plain prose, no marketing-speak. If your question isn't here, email and we'll add it.
It's a May 2026 snapshot. Category-level relationships shift slowly. When we ship a refresh, past buyers get the new file free.
No. Every cell is a population rollup of real monthlySold badge values, not a regression on rank. Each lookup carries its sample size.
Probably you don't, unless you want category-landscape data (the popular tools are single-ASIN), Canadian data, or a static reference you can cite or hand to a client.
No. You do not need a seller account, brand registry, an Amazon login, or an account on this site. Buy, download, open in Excel, look up your category. The workbook is a static file, it does not phone home.
It is a single `.xlsx` file with formulas. Built for Excel (Mac, Windows, and Microsoft 365 web), where everything works as designed. Google Sheets opens it and all functionality works; you will see a couple of minor formatting differences. Apple Numbers does not work; use Excel or Google Sheets.
Yes, inside your own business. Your employees, contractors, VAs, and co-founders on the same Amazon seller account or legal entity are covered by the license. What is not allowed: redistributing the file outside your business (resale, public hosting, sharing to non-employees, or training a model on the tables). Full license terms on the legal page.
The workbook tells you so explicitly. We don't make decisions on data we don't trust, and you shouldn't either.
Use the closest parent category that ships as a dedicated sheet. The 'Diverges' column on the Overview sheet tallies how often each subcategory drifts from its root baseline (a cell diverges if it sits ≥2× above or ≤0.5× below); the higher that count for sibling subcategories, the rougher the root is as a proxy for yours. See the full categories list before you buy: 231 US categories and 140 CA categories ship as dedicated sheets.
The popular subscription estimators are $30 to $40 a month. $79 is two months of one of those, one-time, lifetime use of the snapshot, no account required.
POE requires brand registry, which means a registered trademark plus multi-week approval, and it's keyword and niche-trend oriented, not a category-wide BSR-to-sales map. If you're researching whether to start a brand, you can't use POE yet.
Five minutes if you already use BSR and Keepa drops. Open the category sheet, type your BSR, your 30-day drops, and (optionally) reviews added, then read the Demand Read range and the worst case beside it. The Methodology page walks one full lookup if you want the long form.
14 days, no questions. Email and the money comes back. If you find a methodology bug in that window we want to hear about it.
